The Black Swan

The image of the black swan was already used by the Roman satirist Juvenal. Since black swans were completely unknown in Europe at the time of the Roman Empire, the satirist often used the image of the black swan jokingly as a figure of speech for absolutely impossible events.

After the Australian continent was discovered and subsequently black swans were actually sighted in 1697, the figure of speech in the English language turned into a metaphor for a very unlikely but still possible event.

According to systemic understanding, organizations have their histories, images, and path dependencies. The past is taken as a model for the future. Thus, organizations create their construction of reality, often without any reference to fact. An organization sees what it sees – it usually does not see that it does not see what it does not see. If – according to existing and accepted understanding – there are no black swans, then they are not perceived. The consequence is that phenomena are either not seen or misinterpreted.

The problem of organizational self-reference takes hold. Notable, exemplary consequences: Financial crisis, socioeconomic consequences due to the Corona pandemic, or climate change.

Events with massive social, ecological, or economic consequences were not expected in advance and threaten the business models of established organizations. In retrospect, the developments appear explainable and the world wonders why it was not prepared for them.